AMRO Projects Thailand Growth at 2.4% in Both 2026 and 2027

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) projects Thailand's economy to grow by 2.4 percent in both 2026 and 2027, according to a preliminary assessment published on 7 September 2026. The assessment follows AMRO's Annual Consultation Visit to Thailand from 24 August to 4 September 2026, a mission led by Group Head and Lead Economist Allen Ng, with AMRO Director and CEO Yasuto Watanabe and Chief Economist Dong He joining policy meetings with the Thai authorities.

AMRO said growth has been better than expected despite the Middle East energy shock, supported by investment, fiscal spending and technology exports. Foreign direct investment-backed projects, particularly in digital infrastructure and electronics, continued to strengthen the investment cycle in the first half of 2026. AMRO noted, however, that growth remains uneven: technology-linked sectors have expanded strongly while traditional industries, particularly the SME segment, remain weak, and the benefits of the investment pipeline have yet to spread widely across domestic firms and workers.

On prices, AMRO projects headline inflation at 1.6 percent in 2026 and 1.3 percent in 2027, saying price pressures should remain contained as the energy price increase following the Middle East conflict recedes, though cost pass-through and food prices warrant monitoring. The organisation described risks as tilted to the downside, since reliance on a narrow set of growth drivers leaves the outlook vulnerable to shocks, including a sharp slowdown in global AI and technology-related activity.

AMRO's stated policy priority is to harness the current investment wave to drive broader economic transformation by deepening domestic linkages, boosting productivity, creating jobs and raising incomes. It pointed to stronger supplier linkages, workforce development, technology diffusion and wider adoption of digital technologies and AI as measures that could raise potential growth, and said the forthcoming 14th National Economic and Social Development Plan provides an opportunity to coordinate these efforts. AMRO is an international organisation established by the ASEAN+3 finance ministers to conduct macroeconomic surveillance across the region.