ADB raises Thailand's 2026 growth forecast to 2.0% on technology exports

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its forecast for Thailand's economic growth in 2026 to 2.0%, up from the 1.8% it projected in July, according to the September 2026 edition of its Asian Development Outlook released on 23 September 2026. ADB expects growth of 1.9% in 2027. Its inflation forecast for Thailand is 2.5% for 2026 and 1.3% for 2027 (ADB, ADO September 2026).

At ADB's Bangkok briefing, reported by The Nation on 23 September 2026, ADB economists said the Thai economy expanded 2.4% in the first half of 2026. Merchandise exports grew 14.8% year on year over the same period, led by computers, electronic components, telecommunications equipment and machinery linked to the global electronics and artificial-intelligence investment cycle. Private investment rose 11.6% in the first half, driven by spending on machinery, computer equipment and software.

ADB also identified risks to the outlook: volatility in energy and transport costs, an El Niño episode it expects to intensify toward the end of 2026, high household debt, and narrowing fiscal room, with public debt at 66.9% of GDP at the end of June 2026 (ADB figures cited by The Nation). ADB described Thailand's financial system as highly stable, citing strong banking buffers and a low ratio of non-performing loans.

ADB's country director for Thailand, Aaron Batten, said the bank is preparing a country strategy centred on private sector-led development, inclusive growth across the provinces, and regional leadership in digital technology, AI and connectivity ahead of Thailand's hosting of ASEAN meetings in 2028.